Project scheduling using fuzzy PERT and risk management

Abstract

Program evaluation and review techniques (PERT) is an efficient tool for large project management. In actual project control decisions, classical PERT, which is based upon beta distribution, presents a few deficiencies. Generally speaking, classical PERT is explained as the probabilistic approach. On the other hand, activity times in the possibilistic approach such as fuzzy PERT are defined as fuzzy variables instead of random variables used in the traditional probabilistic approaches, which the classical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation. Through this study, we present one way of project scheduling using fuzzy PERT, and apply the possibilistic approach to addressing the uncertainty of a project completion date. Moreover, in fuzzy PERT, we find multiple possible critical paths through a case network, overcoming the shortcomings in the classical PERT, in which critical path is a single and deterministic path, and apply the concept in fuzzy set theory to risk assessment for a project completion date. In recent years, fuzzy PERT methods have been proposed based on possibility theory and fuzzy set theory and developed as an alternate approach to probability theory for quantifying the uncertainty related to activity times. This paper illustrates a straightforward approach for applying fuzzy calculations to address and assess project schedule uncertainty compared with the probabilistic approach, Monte Carlo method.