The impact of floating migration on fertility in China: are floating migrants "childbearing guerillas"?

Abstract

The increasing number of floating migrants in the big cities of China is the result of the household registration (hukou) system and the fast growing market-economy in China. The mass media have portrayed floating migrants as "childbearing guerrillas", who move to escape the supervision of local family planning workers so as to have more children. However, very few studies have provided proof of it. This paper uses the 1-percent sampling data of 1990 census, trying to give an overall picture of the country on the fertility/migration issue. A three-step analysis containing a series of Poisson regression models is conducted and existing migration/fertility theories are used to explain the results of the analysis. Floating migrants are defined as those who live at a place other than their place of household registration. Floating migrants are further distinguished by long term and short term according to the time length after migration. They are also studied in terms of their origins and directions of movement. Contextual impact of the fertility norms of origin and destination provinces on floating migrants' fertility level is also studied. Poisson regressions show that floating migrants as a whole have lower fertility than non-migrants, after controlling for other demographic and social economic factors. Long-term floating migrants show signs of adaptation to the place of destination after they move from a rural to an urban area or from an urban to a rural area. Short-term floating migrants show no sign of adaptation. Both the fertility norms of the origin and destination provinces have effects on the fertility of short-term floating migrants moving from a rural to an urban area. But only the fertility norms of the destination provinces have effects on the fertility of short-term floating migrants moving from one rural area to another. The results of the thesis should have important implications for policies regarding floating migrants and family planning. Recognizing the limitations of using census data, the author asserts the advantages of nation wide data and proposes the proper use of census data in studying floating migrant issues in China.