A model simulation of white-winged dove population dynamics in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province

Abstract

I present the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a simulation model representing two components of population dynamics-natality and mortality-for the white-winged dove (Zenaida asiatica asiatica; WWDO). I also discuss the role of habitat in affecting WWDO distribution and conceptually relate habitat factors to the quantitative model, thereby providing the framework for future development of a spatially explicit WWDO population dynamics model. The model simulated the dynamics of nesting and hunting seasons experienced by an average WWDO population in its principal breeding range, the Tamaulipan Biotic Province, and is represented as a discrete-time, deterministic compartment model based on difference equations with a one-week time step. I evaluated the ability of the model to simulate annual productivity and long-term population trends of the WWDO by comparing model predictions to field data. Based on results of model evaluation simulations, I adjusted model parameters affecting annual productivity and spring breeding population size to correct discrepancies between the database and model results. Sensitivity analysis showed that hunting pressure and return rates of adults and juveniles had the greatest affect on the spring breeding population size. Further knowledge and quantitative analysis of site fidelity, hunting mortality, and survivorship rates would not only help in the development of a spatially explicit habitat model, but would also serve to strengthen the population dynamics model. The current population dynamics model is useful in the understanding of observed patterns and processes of WWDO population dynamics. The model also serves to direct research efforts that would enhance the reliability of the model and further our understanding of the WWDO.