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Dynamic impacts of socio-economic development in rural Texas
Abstract
Several development policies and programs have been enacted to improve the economic vitality, social well-being and quality of life in rural communities. Predominant among these is the attempt by many rural communities to attract or expand industry to promote economic growth. The main objective of this study is to develop a dynamic interactive model that accommodates the projection of socio-economic growth and the impact of additional employment from a new plant on a rural community. The economic account contains projections of business activities, income and employment by sector. A local input-output model is constructed by using the location quotient technique. The Leontief dynamic input-output framework is used to project the output levels by economic sector while considering capital replacement and expansion requirements as well as current consumption. The demographic account uses an age-sex cohort survival method to project population. The annual local labor force is estimated by labor participation rates for each age and sex cohort, and is used to determine the migration activities required to match employment requirements. The public service account is projected by the average standards method, and includes age-specific usage coefficients for local areas. The projections encompass education, medical, housing, criminal justice, fire protection, water supply, water treatment, sewage treatment, solid waste disposal and transportation requirements. Finally, the fiscal impact account estimates the change in revenues and costs of different government units, i.e. municipality, school district and county. The income spill-over effect through commuters is also evaluated in the model. The community development model provides an annual baseline projection for the Bonham Municipality in Fannin County, Texas for the years of 1980 to 2010. Moreover, an analysis is made of the impact of a new service plant establisted in the Bonham Municipality in 1983. For dealing with uncertainty of future events and values, a sensitivity analysis examines the prediction capacity of the model using different assumptions. The threshold employment of the service sector is evaluated in this study in terms of triggering the impact of public services. Also, a multiplier analysis is conducted to measure the total change of employment in different periods of time relative to the initial increased growth of the economy.
Description
Typescript (photocopy).Subject
Rural developmentRural development
Mathematical models
Major agricultural economics
1985 Dissertation K17
Rural development
Mathematical models
Texas
Rural development
Case studies
Texas
Collections
Citation
Kao, Cheng Siu (1985). Dynamic impacts of socio-economic development in rural Texas. Texas A&M University. Texas A&M University. Libraries. Available electronically from https : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /DISSERTATIONS -447650.
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