Abstract
This study illustrates that a water resource system planning model can be developed which will incorporate the full effects of the risk elements inherent in the system. The system for which the model is developed is that of a single reservoir the sole purpose of which is to provide water for an irrigation development. The design variables for the system are the size of the reservoir, the number of acres to be irrigated and the amount of water to be furnished each irrigated acre. The risk considered in this model is of hydrologic origin and includes variable stream inflow, variable evaporation and variable rainfall. In this study the reactions of the users of the water, i.e., the farmers in the irrigation development, to these risk elements and the effects of their reactions on the optimal levels of the design variables are included in a simulation model of the system. This is accomplished by allowing the water users to react to many different degrees of variation in the amount of water supplied them and then evaluating the effects of these reactions on the returns accruing to the system. ...
Conner, James Richard (1970). Incorporation of agricultural risk into water resource planning models. Doctoral dissertation, Texas A&M University. Texas A&M University. Libraries. Available electronically from
https : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /DISSERTATIONS -177107.