Storm surge analysis using numerical and statistical techniques and comparison with NWS model SLOSH

Abstract

This thesis presents a technique for storm surge forecasting. Storm surge is the water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by almost 20 feet. Numerical modeling is an important tool used for storm surge forecast. Numerical model ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation model; Luettich et al, 1992) is used in this thesis for simulating hurricanes. A statistical technique, EST (Empirical Statistical Technique) is used to generate life cycle storm surge values from the simulated hurricanes. These two models have been applied to Freeport, TX. The thesis also compares the results with the model SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), which is currently used for evacuation and planning. The present approach of classifying hurricanes according to their maximum sustained winds is analyzed. This approach is not found to applicable in all the cases and more research needs to be done. An alternate approach is suggested for hurricane storm surge estimation.