On the separation of preferences among marked point process wager alternatives

Abstract

A wager is a one time bet, staking money on one among a collection of alternatives having uncertain reward. Wagers represent a common class of engineering decision, where “bets” are placed on the design, deployment, and/or operation of technology. Often such wagers are characterized by alternatives having value that evolves according to some future cash flow. Here, the values of specific alternatives are derived from a cash flow modeled as a stochastic marked point process. A principal difficulty with these engineering wagers is that the probability laws governing the dynamics of random cash flow typically are not (completely) available; hence, separating the gambler’s preference among wager alternatives is quite difficult. In this dissertation, we investigate a computational approach for separating preferences among alternatives of a wager where the alternatives have values that evolve according to a marked point processes. We are particularly concerned with separating a gambler’s preferences when the probability laws on the available alternatives are not completely specified.