Seismic fragility estimates and sensitivity analyses for corroding reinforced concrete bridges

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop methodologies to estimate and predict the fragility of deteriorating reinforced concrete (RC) bridges, and to identify the effect of design and construction parameters on the reliability of RC bridges over time to assist in the design and construction process. To accurately estimate the fragility of deteriorating bridge, probabilistic capacity and demand models are developed. In addition, to simplify the calculation cost maintaining accuracy, fragility increment functions are developed. The proposed fragilities account for model uncertainties in the structural capacity, demand models, corrosion models. Furthermore, proper account is made of the uncertainties in the environmental conditions, material properties, and structural geometry. To identify the effect of design and construction parameters on the reliability of RC bridges, a sensitivity and importance analysis is conducted. Sensitivity analysis for an example bridge subject to corrosion is carried out to identify which parameters have the largest impact on the reliability over time. This dissertation considers different combinations of chloride exposure condition, environmental oxygen availability, water-to-cement ratios, and curing conditions, which affect the reliability of bridges over time. The developed models are applicable to both existing and new RC bridges and may be employed for the prediction of service-life and life-cycle cost analysis of RC bridges.