Bayesian prediction of modulus of elasticity of self consolidated concrete

Abstract

Current models of the modulus of elasticity, E , of concrete recommended by the American Concrete Institute (ACI) and the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) are derived only for normally vibrated concrete (NVC). Because self consolidated concrete (SCC) mixtures used today differ from NVC in the quantities and types of constituent materials, mineral additives, and chemical admixtures, the current models may not take into consideration the complexity of SCC, and thus they may predict the E of SCC inaccurately. Although some authors recommend specific models to predict the E of SCC, they include only a single variable of assumed importance, namely the compressive strength of concrete, c f ′ . However there are other parameters that may need to be accounted for while developing a prediction model for the E of SCC. In this research, a Bayesian variable selection method is implemented to identify the significant parameters in predicting the E of SCC and more accurate models for the E are generated using these variables. The models have a parsimonious parameterization for ease of use in practice and properly account for the prevailing uncertainties.