The effects of economic development and international dependency levels on international conflict initiation

Abstract

The idea that international conflict and economics are related is not new, and political scientists studying this subject have reached various conclusions over time. Some argued that economic growth led to expansion, competition, rivalry, and consequently violence between states. Others argued that patterns of economic international interaction have not changed over the past 2500 years, and that states consistently initiated conflict against other states when they felt it beneficial to change the existing political, economic, or social system. Still others argued that the underlying goal of every state over the past few centuries was to accumulate capital through political and military means. I, like these political scientists, also tried to establish a link between the likelihood of military conflict and economic factors. Specifically, I tested whether a state's level of economic development or international dependency affected the type of international interaction in which it normally participated. I hypothesized that, for the years 1950 to 1992, economically developed or internationally non-dependent states would attack less developed or dependent states more often than states of similar economic status. I also hypothesized that conflicts initiated by economically developed or internationally non-dependent states against less developed or dependent states would be less violent than they would be in conflicts they initiated against states of similar economic status. What I found was that economically developed and internationally non-dependent states were more likely to initiate conflict against other developed or non-dependent states during this period. I also found that the probability of a developed or non-dependent state initiating violent conflict against another developed or non-dependent states was higher than it was against less developed or dependent states. Regarding violent conflict initiation, I found no evidence that disparate levels of economic development or international dependency between two states caused conflicts between them to be more or less violent. I should note that I found disparities in military capability to be the best predictor of violence among conflicts initiated by the top developed or non-dependent states, and democratic dyads not to be a deterrent to violent conflicts.