An analysis of railroad accident dynamics in College Station, Texas

Abstract

The intersection between the Union Pacific Railroad (UP) Valley Junction line and Texas A&M University (TAMU) poses a significant potential or risk to the people who utilize the campus. The line carried over I 1,000 loads of hazardous material in 1995.(') The release of hazardous cargo occurring along a 1.2 mile stretch of track near TAMU could produce disastrous results. An ignition of flammable material released could affect tens of people near the tracks. For a release of a toxic material, the effects could reach in the hundreds. For a release of a flammable material followed by an explosion, thousands of people could be affected. The probability of an initiating event (e.g. a derailment, a collision, or terrorist act) occurring is 0.049808 each year. The probability of a release following an imt- iating event is 0.00090' ) each year. Therefore the probability of an initiating event occurring followed by a release is 0.000045. A qualitative analysis shows that this event is undesirable and requires a management decision. A contingency plan for the release of hazardous materials along the track appears warranted in an attempt to reduce the effects of a hazardous release of flammable or toxic materials. Based on the analysis presented herein, the only meaningful solution to eliminate the probability of a potentially catastrophic incident from occurring is to relocate the tracks. Constructing a bridge and raising the tracks would increase the probability of an incident followed by a release.