Abstract
This study proposes to scientifically assess the reliability of previous government cost estimates in evaluating construction project bids and to examine the usefulness of discordancy testing methods as an alternative to the government estimate in evaluating the low bid. A random sample of US Air Force Military Construction (MILCON) projects bid between I Oct 92 and 30 Jun 95 are divided into four subgroups for examination. Sampling distributions are generated in order to determine the mean of the ratio difference between the low bid or median bid and the government cost estimate. A null hypothesis is tested for each comparison. Conclusions are drawn about government cost estimate accuracy, consistency, and reliability. Two discordancy testing methods are examined for their usefulness in evaluating a low bid. A null hypothesis is tested for the significance of detection rates. Conclusions are drawn about the performance of each discordancy test.
Strucely, Timothy David (1995). The reliability of the government cost estimate as an evaluator of the low bid in US Air Force Construction Projects. Master's thesis, Texas A&M University. Available electronically from
https : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /ETD -TAMU -1995 -THESIS -S77.