Abstract
There is evidence long range climate forecasts have improved. The Southern Oscillation (SO) phenomenon is currently one of the most promising tools for long range climate forecasting. Previous studies have shown sorghum yields are correlated with SO events. This correlation may allow producers to modify their decisions by including long range climate forecasts in their decision making. Biophysical simulation models are used to simulate crop yields. The optimal input combination are identified for 19 sites, one in Australia (Jondaryan) and 18 in Texas, with and without SO information for five prices and three SO events. From these site yields expected aggregate supply curves weighted by hectares for Texas and Jondaryan are developed. Aggregated supply curves are developed assuming the producer does not have the SO knowledge and assuming the producer has SO knowledge. In Texas, the with SO knowledge supply curve shifts right or left of the without knowledge curve depending on the price. For Jondaryan, the with knowledge curve shifts right of the without knowledge curve at the lower prices. At the higher prices the two curves converge. Aggregated nitrogen use changes in both regions. In Texas, nitrogen use declined at all prices with knowledge of SO forecasts. In Jondaryan, nitrogen use increased at the lower prices and remained the same at higher prices.
Hill, Harvey S. J. (1995). Improved climate forecast accuracy: implications for the aggregate sorghum supply curve. Master's thesis, Texas A&M University. Available electronically from
https : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /ETD -TAMU -1995 -THESIS -H553.