A forecast of the critical influences on the future organizational structure of upper-level administration of land-grant colleges and universities

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to forecast the critical influences on the future organizational structure of upper-level administration of land-grant colleges and universities and to evaluate the relative likelihood of these critical influences occurring in the next ten years. Additionally, an effort was made to identify some future upper-level administrative organizational structure changes needed to meet the most critical of these influences. A Delphi study, utilizing 17 experts nominated by presidents and chancellors of land-grant institutions, was used to forecast these critical influences. These experts generated a list of 132 critical influences in Round One of the Delphi process. In Round Two, the influences were arranged into categories and the expert panel rated the influences on a five point scale from 1 - Certain Not To Occur to 5 - Certain To Occur. In Round Three, the respondents were provided the results of Round Two and asked to review and rescore their positions on the critical influences. Where the experts deviated from the consensus of the group, they were asked to provide statements of rationale for the deviant position. In addition to these "minority reports", the panelists were asked to identify the one influence (or group of influences) believed to be most critical and state what future upper-level administrative organizational structure in land-grant colleges and universities would be needed to meet this forecasted influence. The data developed through the Delphi process and the examination of the literature were used to draw conclusions from the study. Sane of the primary conclusions included: projected growth in support staff and management expertise at the upper-levels of institutional administration; concern for the continuation of the preeminent position of academics; required changes in organization resulting from changes in student demographics; and the need for organizational structures to meet the demands of the Federal and State governments, a changing economy, workforce movements, legal concerns, energy, and growth of technology. In addition, recommendations based on the conclusions of the study were made for use by institutional administrators, and potential areas for future research were suggested.