A test of the equilibrium Hoover Index of concentration in analysing the trends and patterns of spatial population distribution in Korea

Abstract

The main objective of this dissertation is to investigate systematically the changing patterns and trends of area population distribution in Korea, and to study the implications these spatial patterns of population distribution would have in relation to existing and future population and regional development policies in the country. In the process, the study utilized a measurement called Hoover Index of Population Concentration, For the analysis, the study also utilized a stochastic model called Ergodic Markov Chains to obtain the equilibrium state population distribution based on the inter-regional migration patterns. The results of the analysis exhibited continuing concentration of Korean population into the capital area in spite of rigorous governmental programs to discourage this trend. However, the Hoover Index method did reveal a decreasing rate of increase, although meager, in the concentration trend. From the results of the analysis and discussions, the following suggestions were made as to the regional development and population distribution policy aspects. First, the decentralization of administrative, economic, and related functions of Seoul should be preceded before any policy of population redistribution can be considered. Second, in close coordination with the first, fully develop the existing second class cities into strong urban centers capable of counteracting the attractiveness of the capital city. Third, close attention should be given to intra-regional population movement within the Gyunggi province, especially regarding the interaction with Seoul. Fourth, an inland urban growth center should be planned and implemented around the general area where Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyongbuk Provinces meet with a long-range vision to stimulate the development of the highland mining-oriented region. Fifth, Jeonnam, Jeonbuk, and western part of Gyongnam Provinces have to be substantially developed in terms of economic activities. Conversion of subsistence agriculture into productive commercial farming should be highly encouraged and systematically implemented. And sixth, the nation should give more emphasis to the development of small-to-medium sized consumer-oriented industries in non-metropolitan areas than to the building of huge industrial complexes in a few selected places.