Abstract
Large accrued debt levels as well as changes in government farm program income support levels insure an ongoing struggle to survive for farm firms in the Texas Trans-Pecos. Relying almost totally on deep groundwater supplies for irrigation water, the region is one of the higher cost production areas in the state. Recent advances in biophysical simulation as well as farm firm level policy simulation offer the opportunity to examine what paths of adjustment are available to the remaining producers. Among the pertinent questions investigated are which cotton irrigation schemes are appropriate given the facets of the 1985 farm bill and the current agricultural economy. A generalized crop growth simulation model, developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and known as EPIC, was used to estimate yield distributions for selected row crops and various irrigation schemes on cotton. Whole-farm net returns distributions were developed and stochastic dominance with respect to a function (SDRF) techniques used to reduce the total number of irrigation schemes considered. SDRF rankings for furrow irrigation favored pre-plant irrigation schemes with a 10 inch pre-plant over water-up schemes or pre-plant schemes with an 8 inch pre-plant application. Sprinkler results demonstrated a preference for 9 or 10 post-plant irrigations regardless of the amount applied per application. Whole-farm level results from use of the FLIPSIM policy simulation model indicated several trends: continued erosion of farm firm net worth, growing levels of debt, and moderate to poor chances of survival over the 5 year period examined. Cotton irrigation strategies selected by the quadratic programming model within FLIPSIM showed a preference for the more water intensive irrigation schemes. This preference intensified as government income support levels declined over time. Limited water supplies in selected scenarios resulted in the selection of cotton irrigation schemes which were deemed non-optimal using stochastic dominance techniques.
Ellis, John Russell (1987). Risk efficient cropping strategies and farm survival : Texas Trans-Pecos. Texas A&M University. Texas A&M University. Libraries. Available electronically from
https : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /DISSERTATIONS -611401.