Optimal cropping patterns under risk : the Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley

Abstract

The Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley is characterized by a subtropical climate, hence it is a major fruit, vegetable, and field crop producing region. The long growing season also fosters serious production and management problems, emphasizing the need for a management tool capable of analyzing the effects of crop production technology and new crop alternatives under risk. A linear programming MOTAD model of agricultural production was developed and applied to estimate optimal cropping patterns under risk with current technology in place. This produced a set of solutions which represent a risk-return tradeoff curve or an E-A frontier. A point on the frontier at which current cropping patterns in the LRGV resemble the optimal solution was used as a base to compare to results from incorporating new production technologies and crop alternatives. Estimation of supply curves for new varieties of sorghum to be used as a biomass feedstock for a methane generation facility indicated that the most economical source of biomass would be a variety which produces an acceptable grain yield for traditional markets and a high biomass residual. Risk did not greatly affect the supply curves relative positions. Estimation of the effect of timely cotton stalk destruction as a boll weevil control measured showed a significant negative response of cotton yield to the percent of stalks standing as of September 1. Yield increases and a decrease in insecticide use were incorporated into the MOTAD model. Results indicate increased net revenue at all percentages of stalks left standing below 20 percent over all risk levels. Alternative double cropping strategies were evaluated for a typical 1000 acre farm. Results suggest that a cotton/corn and a cotton/sunflower double cropping scheme are optimal in the absence of any vegetable production options. When vegetables are an option, double cropping did not enter the solution. The maximum acreage of double cropping activities was 156 acres, suggesting that the maximum double cropped acreage on an average farm would not typically exceed about 15 percent of available acreage.