A regional forecasting model of the hospital sector

Abstract

Rising costs and less certain revenues have made hospitals and administrators more aware of the need for accurate planning and budgeting. An important input in the expenditure budgeting process is knowledge of the prices of goods and services purchased by the hospital. The final product of this dissertation is a regionally based hospital market basket index (HMBI) which is composed of input price forecasts for 55 items in 11 cost categories plus 2 interest rates. A model describing the hospital sector is defined, estimated, and forecast as part of a macro-model of the economy. An equation for each input is also estimated and forecast using the macro-model as a base. By using region specific data and a greater level of detail than previous models, the HMBI provides a budgeting tool not previously available to the hospital.