Sensitivity of U.S. port market areas to changing world demands for grains and soybeans

Abstract

The U.S. depends on foreign markets for a significant share of its agricultural production. Exports account for 25 to 60 percent of total disappearance for the major feed grains, food grains, and oilseeds produced in the United States. This study uses a cost minimizing network flow model to analyze how changes in the location of world demands may effect the market areas associated with U.S. grain ports. Six commodities (corn, grain sorghum, soybeans, hard wheat, soft wheat, and durum wheat) are included in the analysis. Several scenarios which change the location of world demands are analyzed. Port area impacts are evaluated for the Gulf, Atlantic, Great Lake, and Pacific port areas of the United States. Analysis initially focuses on changes in port area export share for the six commodities as world demand locations are altered. Results indicate port area sensitivities to the world demand changes vary by commodity. Grain sorghum, soybeans, soft wheat, and durum wheat export flows are not substantially affected. Corn and hard wheat results produce noticeable port area adjustments. In general, world demand reallocations which increase Asian or South American demands expand flows to Gulf, Atlantic, and Pacific ports and reduce the market area for Great Lake ports. World demand changes which increase European demands tend to expand the market area associated with the Great Lake ports. This expansion takes place at the expense of ports associated with the Gulf and Pacific port areas. Two likely scenarios (one each for corn and hard wheat) are examined further to determine if existing port capacities are sufficient to accommodate expected changes in port area grain receipts. The largest projected increases in grain flows are not expected to produce major capacity constraints for any of the affected port areas. Pacific and Atlantic port areas may require more extensive utilization of existing capacity to handle increasing volumes of hard wheat and corn.