America's aging population and national politics : a year 2000 perspective

Abstract

The purpose of this Delphi study was to undertake and complete an interdisciplinary investigation of the degree of probability that exists, in the opinion of the members of an expert panel, that persons 65 years of age and older will become an effective and viable political force at the national level in the next twenty years. The first step in the execution of this research design was to determine which of the social sciences would contribute significant information to the primary problem under consideration, i.e., the degree of probability that exists that persons 65 years of age and older will become an effective and viable political force in the next twenty years. Because the following academic disciplines appeared to offer the greatest possibilities of further enhancing the knowledge base in relation to the primary problem under consideration, they were chosen for inclusion in this study: demography, psychology, sociology, economics, and the health and political sciences. The area of educational attainment of the older adult was treated as a social science under the heading of vital statistics in the section on demography. These academic disciplines were then reviewed in detail to identify those theoretical positions in each discipline considered germane to the central issue at hand. The second step involved a thorough review of the two major political issues that appeared to possess the strongest forecasted possibility of bringing the older adults into a viable and effective political force. These issues appeared to be those of the Social Security (Old Age and Survivors Insurance) program and the Medicare (Medical Insurance). The third step was to construct a Delphi study survey instrument containing the relevant issues from the various academic disciplines cited above. The fourth step was to identify ten top-level policymakers who were either presently serving in the U.S. Congress or who were presently employed by the U.S. Government's Administration on Aging and invite these persons to participate in the Delphi study along with ten top-level policymakers employed by the five largest voluntary aging-oriented organizations in the nation. The fifth and last step involved tabulating and interpreting the results of the Delphi study. . . . (Author's abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of author.) UMI