A Delphi forecast of higher education leisure services in 2000 A.D. : a program process model

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to illuminate, anticipate, and investigate trends and directions in leisure services within a higher education setting as the 21st Century approaches. The study focused on the following questions: (1) What are the factors in the economy, the population, the family, education, and other components that will have consequences on leisure services in higher education? (2) What impact will future trends have on planning for the future of leisure services? (3) How can a scenario be useful in planning for higher education leisure services in the year 2000? The methodology used in the study incorporated the Delphi technique with scenario generation. A panel of twelve experts were selected to ascertain the probability of occurrence and the impact on planning for each of 130 items included in a propositional inventory. A most probable scenario was generated from the results of a three-round Delphi and is presented in Chapter V. The final phase of this research was to evaluate the feasibility of using the scenario in the planning process for institutions of higher learning. This was accomplished by an evaluation team made up of twelve practitioners. Conclusions of this research indicated that the use of scenario writing has been useful in forcing the reader to consider the total university environment in order to provide decision-making alternatives. The objective of this research has been to integrate and manifest the group process model in anticipatory planning. A comprehensive review of the literature in forecasting, long-range planning, and leisure services is presented. The propositional inventory and individual item histories are included in the appendices.