Probabilistic models for alignment and evaluation of long-range plans in corporations having multiple independent operating units

Abstract

The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the problems encountered in attempting to evaluate the probably results of a corporate long-range plan. These problems stem from the inherent stochastic nature of future outcomes. A probabilistic model is developed which aligns operating unit plans at a common probability level and forms a corporate plan which can be evaluated as to its probable success in attaining corporate objectives. Corporate long-range planning first attracted significant attention as the subject of research in the early 1950's. Much progress has been made since that time in clarifying the need for and function of such planning, in forecasting future condition, and in establishing corporate objectives. However, little attention has been directed to the problem of evaluating the plans, designed to attain particular objectives, as to the probability that they will succeed. This is attributed to the general use of deterministic approaches to plan development. ...