Total factor productivity in Mexican manufacturing : an analysis of the sources of growth, 1975-85

Abstract

This study provides an analysis of the effects of Mexico's industrial development policies on the structure and productivity of its manufacturing base between 1975 and 1985. Because virtually every aspect of the economy was controlled by the government during those years, its trade and development policies have been credited with creating both the greatest industrial expansion and the worst economic crisis in its history. The methodology employed to assess the structural changes in manufacturing is based on the transcendental logarithmic production function which explicitly measures the marginal productivities and elasticities of output with respect to labor, capital and material inputs. In addition, this methodology provides an empirical measure of total factor productivity (TFP), or increase in output not accounted for by increases in factor inputs. The results indicate that TFP contributed negatively to the production process, declining 1.02 percent while growth in output was in excess of 31 percent. The marginal productivity and contribution of capital declined 6.15 percent and 12.12 percent, respectively, more the result of a decline in capital return than from reduced investment. The contribution of labor declined 2.57 percent owing to a 29.75 percent reduction in real wages, as employment grew 55.96 percent. Increases in the prices of material inputs caused its share in the value of output to increase 5.56 percent while the marginal productivity grew a modest 0.12 percent. Trade orientation had no detectable effect on TFP due to relatively insignificant changes in trade performance. Exports grew in real terms but remained a small part of total output (5.3 percent in 1985). Import substitution grew 22.0 percent but imports accounted for only 7.8 percent of domestic use in 1985. Government trade and development programs were primarily responsible for the over-all decline in productivity but not for the variations in TFP among the sectors. Efforts to promote productivity though control of technology transfer, investment, ownership, and financial incentives proved ineffective against extensive protectionist measures and currency controls. These actions provided an anti-export bias and a disincentive to investment in technology.