A Thermodynamic Framework for the Measurement of Stability in the International Political System

Abstract

This paper specifies a heuristic framework fashioned from the principles of the Second Law of Thermodynamics intended to extend and broaden our explanation of the structural dynamics of change and transformation within the global political system. I begin by outlining the logic and principles of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, with particular attention to the forms of energy and the nature of entropy critical to evaluating structural integrity. From this, I link energy, structure, and entropy to the underlying logic of the stability and instability of the international political system. Specifically, this paper proposes and explains four forms of structural integrity that logically take shape within the international political system as a result of the natural combinations of information and scope prevailing across nation-states. Using T. R. Gurr’s Polity II cross-national time series data drawn from 152 countries between 1800 and 1986, I present findings which confirm that salient patterns of structural stability within the global political system are consistent with our expectations based on the principles of thermodynamics.