A Generalized Method for Estimation of Industrial Energy Savings from Capital and Behavioral Programs

Abstract

In 2005, NEEA engaged the food processing industry in the Northwest with a behavior based program called Continuous Energy Improvement (CEI). Industrial energy efficiency programs have historically been limited to large capital projects because savings from behavioral elements are difficult to measure. The challenge is to calculate a robust estimate of all program energy savings, not just those associated with capital projects. A generalized linear regression model based on intervention analysis methodology was developed to capture total energy savings. This model allows the separation of capital savings to yield savings uniquely attributable to the behavioral program. The intervention model and the resulting calculated savings were both validated by an independent Evaluation Measurement and Verification (EM&V) validation contractor. Actual 2006-2010 validated savings from CEI behavior change was 3 percent per year for both electric and natural gas. This paper will present the technical foundations of the model and discuss the resulting analysis.