The Future of Combustion Turbine Technology for Industrial and Utility Power Generation

Abstract

Low capital cost and ample low-cost natural gas supplies will make natural gas-fired combustion turbine systems the power generation technology of choice over the next decade. Against the background of earlier use by electric utilities, this paper examines the status, economic outlook, and future directions of combustion turbine technology for industrial and utility power generation. The discussion takes into account the ongoing deregulation and increasing competition that are shaping the electric power generation business. Included is a comparison between heavy-duty industrial combustion turbines and their rapidly evolving competition, aeroderivative machines, with emphasis on the appropriate application of each. The prospects for future improvements in the cost and performance of combustion turbines are reviewed, and the likely impact of advanced combustion turbine power generation concepts is considered. Also summarized is the outlook for power generation fuels, including the longer term reemergence of coal and the potential for widespread use of coal gasification-based combustion turbine systems. The paper draws heavily from a technical, economic, and business analysis, Combustion Turbine Power Systems, recently completed by SFA Pacific. The analysis was sponsored by an international group of energy companies that includes utilities, independent power producers (IPPs), and power industry equipment vendors.