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Now showing items 1-6 of 6
Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-03-10)
Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage� in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks ...
Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2018-11-12)
During the last few decades, central banks across the globe came to recognize the potentially valuable role that transparency can play in stabilizing the economy. For example, the Federal Reserve in the US started releasing ...
Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2021-05-06)
In this working paper, authors Tatevik Sekhposyan, Tatjana Dahlhaus, and Julia Schaumburg introduce a flexible, time-varying network model to trace the propagation of interest rate surprises across different maturities. ...
Markov Switching Rationality
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2022-05-23)
The authors propose novel tests for the detection of Markov switching deviations from forecast rationality. Existing forecast rationality tests either focus on constant deviations from forecast rationality over the full ...
From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2019-12-12)
Surveys of professional forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their ...
Evaluating Forecast Performance with State Dependence
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2022-05-16)
In forecasting models, usually no single model emerges as the best overall, as forecasting performance is prone to instabilities because the economic mechanisms providing the data work better on one model during some periods ...