Dynamic interactions between electricity prices and the regional economy

Abstract

In this thesis we study characterize the dynamic relationships among two electricity price variables (residential and commercial) and six regional economic variables in order to examine each individual variable??s role in regional economic activity. We also answer the question ??Do electricity prices have impact on regional economic variables??? We use two statistical techniques as engines of analysis. First, we use directed acyclic graphs to discover how surprises (innovations) in prices from each variable are communicated to other variables in contemporaneous time. Second, we use time series methods to capture regularities in time lags among the series. Yearly time series data on two electricity prices and six regional economic variables for Montgomery County (Texas) are studied using time series methods. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are used to impose restrictions on the Vector Auto Regression model (VAR). Using Innovation Accounting Analysis of the estimated Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model we unravel the dynamic relationships between the eight variables. We conclude that rising electricity prices have a negative impact on allregional economic variables. The commercial average electricity prices lead residential average electricity prices in the time frame we studied (1969-2000). Rising residential electricity prices also have a positive impact on income derived from transfer payments.