Impact of COVID-19 on United States Milk Prices

Abstract

The impacts of the novel coronavirus-2019, or SARS-CoV-2, have presented major implications to all industries across the United States. The agricultural field was not immune to these influences. Agricultural producers have witnessed significant changes in policy, management practices, and revenue as a result. Specifically, the dairy cattle industry has experienced statistically significant fluctuations in the price of its products. The objective of this research was to quantify the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the United States dairy industry via fluid milk price analysis. The data evaluated explains the changes in revenue that United States’ fluid milk producers have witnessed during the outbreak and response to the disease. The autoregressive integrated moving average forecast and counterfactual model indicate that fluid milk producers for the United States have lost approximately $0.21436/ctw of fluid milk produced or $417,656,647.50 across national production from January 2020 to November 2020. The long-term effects of the pandemic will likely be felt by producers for an extended time.