Red, Blue, and Purple

Abstract

This past November, President Donald Trump pulled off his unexpected victory by adding Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to the group of 24 red states Mitt Romney won in 2012. President Trump won with 304 electoral votes from 30 states. The last time Wisconsin voted Republican in a presidential election was in 1984. Pennsylvania and Michigan last voted Republican in 1988. What led these states to vote red? Pollsters tell us that Trump's views on trade, immigration, and his general populism resonated with enough voters in the swing states to nudge them to the Republican column. What is interesting about the three set of states is how they now differ economically and how the each fared over the past eight years. In the Winter 2017 edition of PERCspectives on Policy, PERC Executive Associate Director Andrew Rettenmaier, and PERC Director Thomas Saving examine the relationship between state population growth and the change in Republican vote share.