Goodbye 2018, Hello 2019

Abstract

The decline of the stock market and its recent volatility have many wondering about the future prospects of the economy. Other leading economic indicators offer a mixed outlook: hours worked in manufacturing remains high and wages are rising. However, the yield curve is flattening, and an inverted yield curve often occurs in advance of a business cycle peak. In this issue of PERCspectives on Policy, authors Dennis W. Jansen, Liqun Liu and Andrew J. Rettenmaier consider indicators of the economy’s health and use employment ratios to discuss how much employment could continue to grow in the near-term future.