A Statistical Analysis of Cold Wake Formation with Implications for Climate and Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events that cause significant damage to infrastructure and loss of life each year. TC track forecasting has improved considerably in recent decades, though improvements to intensity forecasts are not as significant. TCs gain energy through heat fluxes from warm ocean waters into the atmosphere. Cold wakes are trails of cooler waters observed beneath TCs that mitigate intensification by reducing these fluxes. This study uses TC data from Colorado State University, oceanic profile data from Argo floats, and satellite sea surface temperature data from NASA to quantify the parameters contributing to hurricane-induced oceanic cooling (ΔSST) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Results indicate that hurricane translation speed and minimum sea level pressure are the best predictors of ΔSST, followed by oceanic isothermal layer depth. A well-rounded knowledge of cold wakes is critical to better understanding TC intensity and ultimately improving the accuracy of TC intensity forecasts.