| dc.description.abstract | The Gulf Coast is the most important U.S. oil and gas region and contains substantial industry infrastructure and assets. The coastal location makes that energy infrastructure vulnerable to extreme weather like hurricanes, and projections show that climate change may worsen the situation. This dissertation examines the impact of hurricane forecasts on aspects of the Gulf Coast oil and gas industry. The analysis is based on two data sources. First, we used refinery oil input and offshore production data to portray industry activity. Second, we used NOAA information on hurricane forecasts and resultant incidence. Then in three essays, we studied hurricane and associated forecast effects on oil input and offshore operations as well as the effects of inaccurate forecasting.
In the first essay, we explore the relationship between the oil input to refineries and forecast hurricane characteristics using econometrics. In the second essay, we study relationships between forecast hurricane characteristics and offshore platform production shutdowns and evacuations. In the third essay, we study the effects of hurricane forecast inaccuracies in terms of refinery oil input.
Across these essays, we find that stronger hurricane forecasts are associated with offshore shutdowns and oil input reductions and in turn substantial economic losses. In addition, we find hurricane forecast inaccuracy adds to economic losses. | |
