Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the West African Monsoon

Abstract

This project covers the impacts of climate change on the West African Monsoon system using observations and simulations from a set of climate models. We focus on three variables that characterize the wet season: date of rainy season onset, date of rainy season demise, and total precipitation during the rainy season. These variables are calculated using gridded precipitation data only. We apply spatial and temporal analysis to identify model biases and patterns and use the existing literature to document and explain those patterns. Present (Historical) climate simulations (1981-2014) are validated against observations for the same period of time. Projections for the late twentieth century (2064-2100) are compared to present simulations. Our findings indicate strong biases in demise and total precipitation, with a weaker bias relative to the projected change in monsoon behavior for onset. However, in the context of the delay in the onset and demise, as well as an increase in precipitation, these findings are largely consistent with the literature.