Investing in the Future from Flooding: An Examination of Federal Hazard Mitigation Funding on Observed Flood Losses Along the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

As coastal hazards, such as flooding, continue to grow in severity, the need to examine the influences federal mitigation expenditures has in relation to observable losses identified by the federal government becomes increasingly necessary. Hundreds of millions of dollars are invested into the United States coastal communities along the Gulf of Mexico for mitigation purposes, but we do not accurately understand how these funds influence damages caused by flooding events. This research addressing the lack of comprehensive knowledge by stating the following question: To what degree are federal flood mitigation funds influencing observed flood losses as identified by FEMA and SBA in coastal watershed counties? This question is answered by using panel data from 141 coastal counties over the 18 year span of 2002 to 2019 in a Spatial Error Regression model examining expenditures for flood-related mitigation strategies from the HMGP, FMA, and the number of identified mitigated properties from each of these federal programs. Models produced for HMGP funding showed no significance in reducing observable flood damages but was negative. Models produced for FMA funding showed no significance in reducing observable flood damages but was interestingly positive. The FMA model does provide a significant result after a 5-year lag prompting the need for future research to understand if it takes time for mitigation strategies to work after implementation. These results highlight the importance of examining how federal mitigation expenditures are currently influencing observable flood damages along the coastal counties of the Gulf of Mexico and offers perspectives of how these funds can be administered differently to significantly influence observable flood damages in communities that are deemed as high-risk for flooding.