Shifting Horizons: Temporal Orientations and Conflict Decision-making
Abstract
This project explores how time horizons influence decision-making in international conflict. Despite their prevalence as an explanation for conflict behavior, it is less clear how temporal orientations lead to selecting certain policies, and pushing others ‘off the table’. I investigate this puzzle by focusing on the effects of variations in time horizons on the decision-making process. Using insights from IR, political psychology and decision science, I develop a theoretical framework arguing that actors’ time horizons serve as a screening mechanism that shapes the decision process by reducing the type and number of alternatives that are evaluated. Since individuals’ time horizons vary, different choice-sets of policy options emerge. I posit that individuals with long time horizons evaluate larger and more diverse choice-sets compared to those with short time horizons. In turn, the composition of these choice-sets affects the final policy selection. Using a two-phase experiment, I estimate the effects of time horizons on the decision-making process. The results demonstrate that time horizons have a direct effect on the decision process, and an indirect effect on the selection of a conflict strategy. Then, I explore time horizons as a dependent variable. In order to explain what leads to variations in time horizons, I develop a framework that describes how the interplay between situational factors and individual dispositions shapes time horizons. I argue that situational factors moderate the effects of individual dispositions and shift decision-makers’ temporal orientations and policy choices. I assess this framework with a survey experiment, and a large-N statistical analysis of leaders in international conflicts. The findings demonstrate how the conditional relations between both sets of factors shape leaders’ time horizons in conflict. This project presents a comprehensive view of the role that time horizons play in conflict decision-making. First, I unpack the decision-making process and highlight how time horizons influence the selection of conflict strategies. Second, I present an integrated framework to explain how time horizons shift facing a conflict situation. As a whole, this research places the concept of time horizons as a prominent explanation for the behavior of decision-makers in international politics.
Citation
Dvir, Rotem (2021). Shifting Horizons: Temporal Orientations and Conflict Decision-making. Doctoral dissertation, Texas A&M University. Available electronically from https : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /195813.