Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Complex Chemical Process and Utilizing the Results for Risk Reduction Decisions

Abstract

In the chemical, petrochemical, petroleum, and related industries, a broad range of qualitative and quantitative methodologies are employed to understand the impact of release of hazardous materials and the probability or frequency of these releases. These evaluations provide an understanding of risk. One of the common quantitative methods to understand the impact of the release of hazardous materials is Consequence Analysis often required by regulations. When coupled with qualitative or semi-quantitative frequency estimates based on site, company, or industry knowledge, good risk based decisions can be made in most cases. Very rare high consequence events present a difficult problem because risk reduction can involve a broad range of options, and range from low to high cost. For many of these situations, adequate understanding can be obtained when quantitative consequence analysis studies are coupled with more quantitative frequency analysis methods such as fault tree or event tree analysis.