Confidence Level Assessment in Enterprise Risk Management: Case Study with Focus on Oil & Gas Operational Incidents

Abstract

Risk assessment and risk management are widely used in a variety of sectors and industries, particularly with the advent of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) in the last two decades or so. Because it covers most types of risks and applies to most types and sizes of organizations, including private and Government, ERM has significantly expanded the application of risk concepts in the decision-making process worldwide. However, one aspect of risk assessment has not gained traction in practical applications. Specifically, although there are exceptions, typical ERM assessments and some other types of risk assessments do not include the evaluation of the confidence level associated with the risk estimates. This article presents a methodology for the assessment of the confidence level in ERMs with a case study that emphasizes operational incidents at Oil & Gas facilities. It also scrutinizes these risks with respect to risks of different nature considered in a typical ERM (corruption, less demand due to increased competition, lower earnings due to increased operational costs, inadequate insurance coverage etc.)