Understanding the Role of Risk Perception and Trust in Transboundary Water Sharing: A Study on Conflict and Cooperation

Abstract

Along the Texas-Mexico border, different management regimes, property rights, and uses for groundwater are overlapping or conflicting, which has led to unilateral takings on both sides of the border and severe aquifer degradation. In the face of surface water scarcity and increased reliance on groundwater resources, improved water security requires decision-makers to behave in cooperative ways. Within this polycentric governance setting, it is difficult to obtain policy integration and cooperation. A questionnaire was developed to survey water decision-makers on the Texas-side of the Texas-Mexico border to determine how perceptions of risk and levels of trust impact willingness to cooperate or engage in conflict over internationally-shared, transboundary water resources. This research provides insight into how trust and perception of risk influences cooperation over shared transboundary water resources. Trust in social and political institutions has proven to be a central tenant of social capital and a necessary condition for achieving cooperative behavior. This study measures how risks are perceived by different stakeholder groups, what role binational cooperation plays in building trust, and how risk perception and trust impact willingness to cooperate or engage in conflict over transboundary water sharing, with a focus on groundwater. Results from this project support the hypothesis that perceptions of risk and levels of trust do influence willingness to cooperate or engage in conflict. Results show that as trust increases, perceptions of risk decrease and willingness to cooperate increases. As participation in binational stakeholder engagement efforts increase, levels of trust also increase. Perceptions of risk are impacted by experience, knowledge, and frequency of engagement with binational partners. Perceptions and levels of trust vary by tier of governance; those at the local-level have the highest perceptions of risk and lowest levels of trust, while federal-level actors have the highest level of trust and lowest levels of risk perception over shared transboundary water. Results also provide a proven framework and template for use in other global transboundary water sharing settings.