Framing the Next Nuclear Posture Review: A State-Centric, Strategic Approach

Abstract

The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), released by the Department of Defense (DoD) in 2010, announced an unprecedented shift in the U.S. nuclear policy away from state-based threats to nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism concerns. While these issues remain important, the evolving global strategic environment dictates that the next NPR return to a state-centric, strategic focus emphasizing four states: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The only strategic peer to the United States, Russia, is actively modernizing all aspects of its nuclear arsenal and has placed nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) at the center of its national security.1 China has overhauled the structure of its nuclear weapons program and nuclear and missile developments in North Korea are ongoing. Not long ago Iran reached the cusp of nuclear capability before the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The United States must now ensure that this agreement is implemented effectively. All of these developments make it impossible to ignore the importance of nuclear weapons in the U.S. global strategic posture today.