Strange and Terrible Wonders: Climate Change in the Early Modern World

Abstract

The study of climate and climatic change began during the Little Ice Age of the early modern world. Beginning in the sixteenth century, European clerics, scientists, and natural philosophers penned detailed observations of the era’s unusually cool and stormy weather. Scouring the historical record for evidence of similar phenomena in the past, early modern scholars concluded that the climate could change. By the eighteenth century, natural philosophers had identified at least five theories of climatic change, and many had adopted some variation of an anthropogenic explanation. The early modern observations described in this dissertation support the conclusion that cool temperatures and violent storms defined the Little Ice Age. This dissertation also demonstrates that modern notions of climate change are based upon 400 years of rich scholarship and spirited debate.

This dissertation opens with a discussion of the origins of “climate” and meteorology in ancient Greek and Roman literature, particularly Aristotle’s Meteorologica. Although ancient scholars explored notions of environmental change, climate change—defined as such—was thought impossible. The translation and publication of ancient texts during the Renaissance contributed to the reexamination of nature and natural variability. In the sixteenth century, most scholars interpreted weather phenomena through the lenses of theology, astrology, and meteorology. None of these provided a model for great winters or long-term climatic change. The first great storms of the Little Ice Age encouraged observant scholars to construct meteorological chronicles to facilitate the comparison of ancient and modern weather events. The first references to climatic change date to this era, though most observers concluded that contemporary phenomena were no worse than their predecessors. The Scientific Revolution transformed the practice of meteorology in seventeenth-century Europe. Professional scientific organizations encouraged careful observation, standardized reporting, and collaborative research. Late seventeenth-century scientists proposed the first natural, rather than theological, theories of climatic change, while eighteenth century geologists and historians worked to incorporate new weather records into their conclusions. By the early nineteenth century, most scholars acknowledged some degree of climatic change, and many concluded that human civilization bore some responsibility.