A New, Stochastic, Energy Model of the U.S. is Under Construction: SEDS and Its Industrial Structure

Abstract

"A new energy model for the United States is currently being constructed by staff at five National Laboratories for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at the Department of Energy. This new model, SEDS (Stochastic Energy Deployment Model), is designed to test the impact of DOE R&D on energy use in the economy. The “stochastic” part of this model will also allow examination of the risks associated with sudden oil shocks, imposition of carbon taxes or trading schemes, and other shocks to the energy economy.

SEDS is organized by supply-side and demand-side sectors. The supply-side sectors include electricity, liquid fuels, natural gas, coal, and various renewable energy options. On the demand side, there are the usual suspects: industry, commercial buildings, residential buildings, and two transport sectors, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles.

The industrial sector is currently modeled as a single sector, using the latest Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) to calibrate energy consumption to end-use energy categories: boilers, process heating, electro-chemical processes, and other process requirements. As with the CIMS model, these process requirements have ancillary requirements – conveyance, motor drive, pumps, fans, and compressors – that all require certain classes of motors. Lighting and HVAC are considered separately from process requirements.

The current version of SEDS, called SEDS-Lite, has technology detail in many sectors, but these are quite simple. The intent is to add detail over time: this year, we expect to add a pulp and paper sector and a iron and steel sector, pull these and petroleum refining out of the aggregate industrial sector, and add the non-manufacturing industrial component to the model. In future years, we expect the industrial detail to replicate CIMS.

Our simulations with the industrial sector of SEDS-Lite will show how closely it tracks the NEMS forecasts. Other simulations will demonstrate how the stochastic component can be used to show industry"