The risk of buildings overheating in a low-carbon climate change future

Abstract

An overheating risk tool that is compatible with building performance simulation software has been developed, using principal component analysis to give a statistically rigorous simplification of the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections. The tool converts a single dynamic simulation output into many hundreds of simulation results at hourly resolution for equally-probable climates from the UKCP09 weather generator. The result is a population of outcomes for the performance of a specific building in a future climate, thus helping the user choose adaptation technologies that might reduce the risk of overheating. The outputs of the LCF tool can be delivered as a risk matrix or a probabilistic overheating curve. The perceptions and requirements of potential users were assessed and, for non-domestic buildings in particular, the need to quantify and assess overheating risk was understood by professionals, with concerns expressed for the ease of incorporation of the UKCP09 projections into this process. The new tool has the potential to meet these concerns.