A Probabilistic Inventory Analysis of Biomass for the State of Texas for Cellulosic Ethanol

Abstract

Agricultural and forestry wastes for the use of creating cellulosic ethanol were inventoried for each county in Texas. A simple forecast was created for each of the agricultural wastes and then a multivariate empirical distribution was used to simulate the range of biomass available by county and district. The probability that a district could support a 25, 50, 75, or 100 million gallon cellulosic ethanol plant is estimated from the Monte Carlo simulation results. Biomass in Texas is concentrated in the Northern and Eastern areas of the state. The areas of South and West Texas have little to no biomass available to use for cellulosic ethanol. The North East, South East, and Upper Coast districts include forestry waste that increase the amount of available biomass. With 100 percent certainty the North East and South East districts can support four 100 million gallon cellulosic ethanol plants each. The research found that there is more than enough biomass to support numerous cellulosic ethanol plants in Texas, and decision makers can use the results of this study to identify regions of low and high risk for available biomass from agricultural and forestry waste.