Evaluation of Technology Risk in Project Cogeneration Project Returns

Abstract

The economic returns of a cogeneration project are a direct function of the project margin, that is, the difference between revenues and expenses. Revenues and expenses, of course, are made up of both variable and fixed components. The revenues and expenses in a cogeneration project are a direct function of the elements of technology associated with the operation of the cogeneration plant.

This paper will examine the key elements of operating revenues (as affected by plant output), operating hours, and operating expenses (as driven by fuel, operation and maintenance costs). In addition, this paper will address the impact and probability of forced outages. These elements are directly affected by the technology employed. I will describe various techniques for assessing these factors and the basis for assuring compatibility among competing proposals and provide guidelines for assessing the realism of projections which underlie investment decisions.