Forecasting the financial trends facing intercollegiate athletic programs of public institutions as identified by athletic directors of the ACC, Big 12 and SEC Conferences

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to provide a forecast of financial trends in major intercollegiate athletics over the next 15 years for strategic planning purposes. This study focused specifically on the trends of revenue generation and cost containment in the athletic departments of the public institutions in the ACC, Big 12 and SEC Conferences. Most of these large programs are expected to externally produce a majority of their fiscal resources and compete at a high level. This forecast is important because of administrator's increasing difficulty to find the fiscal resources to adequately subsidize their program. The mixed methods study uncovered the myth that intercollegiate athletic programs are in great fiscal health and outlined where leaders in intercollegiate athletics think the future will take us. Over 35 forecasts were identified through interviews with an intercollegiate athletic conference commissioner and an intercollegiate athletic consultant and were then rated by a panel of athletic directors from the aforementioned conferences based on their desirability, impact and likelihood of occurrence. After two rounds of a Delphi procedure, it was determined that over half of the issues, should they occur, would have a high impact. None of the 35 issues were rated as having no or low impact. One issue was rated as having the highest possible likelihood of occurrence. The issue was that employee compensation, utility bills, travel costs, and medical insurance will increase for institutions and athletic departments faster than the general, national rate of inflation. 32 issues were rated as having between a 21-80% chance of occurring, while two issues were given only a 0-20% chance of occurring within the next 10-15 years. The first forecasted that football scholarship limits will be lowered from 85 over the next 10-15 years. The second forecasted that an antitrust exemption will be implemented over the next 10-15 years for intercollegiate athletics by the federal government to cap wages. Over one-third of the issues obtained consensus in two of the three areas rated. Three of the issues obtained consensus in all areas rated.