The Border Adjustment Tax and Corporate Tax Reform

Abstract

Both House Republicans' 2016 tax plan and, more recently, President Trump's tax plan envision a rate cut for the corporate income tax (CIT): from the current 35% to 20% (the House plan) or 15% (the president's plan). To offset any potential revenue loss due to the CIT rate cut, some economists propose a border adjustment tax (BAT). The BAT based on a new 15% CIT is equivalent to shifting the 15% CIT from being entirely on exports to entirely on imports. Because we regularly run a trade deficit, the proponents of the BAT argue, some or all of the lost revenue caused by the CIT rate reduction can be recovered by the BAT. This study examines the role of the BAT in raising revenues. It finds that some previously neglected factors would significantly compromise the BAT's ability to generate net revenues, with or without a fully offsetting appreciation of the dollar. These factors include an increase in imports price, a decrease in exports price, and dollar appreciation's asymmetric effects on imports and exports, all of which work to reduce the trade deficit or even turn it into a surplus.