Impact of Increasing Brazilian Cattle Production Efficiency On Brazilian Beef Production

Abstract

As the world population grows and the demand for meat increases, pressure is placed on the agricultural industry to satisfy societal needs. Having the largest commercial cattle herd, and 50% lower production costs than the United States, Brazil may be able to meet future societal needs and demands through increases in Brazilian cattle production efficiency. From 1990 to 2017 Brazil went from producing 24.45 kg of live weight/ha/year to 60.15 kg of live weight/ha/year. Brazil has the opportunity to realize larger productivity increases by improving carcass weights and weaning percentages. The current average Brazilian carcass weight is 547.22 lbs. and the weaning percentage is 31.6% compared to a U.S. average carcass weight of 819 lbs. and an 83.5% weaning percentage in certain regions of the U.S. The objective of the current study was to determine how varying levels of cattle production efficiency in carcass weights and weaning percentages would impact Brazilian beef production in the next 50 years. Structural and trend models were used to project Brazilian carcass weights and weaning percentages out 50 years. Different scenarios were analyzed to determine how different levels of carcass weights and weaning percentages would impact beef production. A structural model forecasted Brazilian carcass weights and weaning percentages to be 707 lbs. and 56.77% by 2068 respectively, resulting in an increase of production by 137%. If Brazil achieved U.S. carcass weight and weaning percentage levels by 2068, beef production would increase by 308%. The results of the current study may be further utilized to analyze the effects that an increase in Brazilian beef production would have on the U.S Beef Industry.