Exercises and Adversaries: The Risks of Military Exercises

Abstract

We argue that military exercises can create four types of risk—accidents, hostility, reciprocity, and crises. The level of risk an exercise creates is determined by two factors. The first factor is the political environment between the country running the exercise and the potential adversary. The second factor is the perceived level of threat an exercise creates for an adversary. Exercises that have close proximity to the adversary, have high magnitude, and have low transparency all increase the threat level of a military exercise. This creates incentives for an adversary to respond in a way that creates risks for all parties.