Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Severe Convective Regime. Part I: Methodology
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Observational and modeling studies have shown that shear and instability are powerful predictors of the likelihood of severe weather and tornadoes. To the extent that upper-tropospheric forecast errors can be described as potential vorticity (PV) anomalies on the forecasted PV field, knowing (and being able to quantify) the effects of such errors on shear and instability would allow forecasters to anticipate the effects of those errors on the likely mode of severe weather. To test the sensitivity of the severe convective environment to PV fluctuations, a PV inversion framework is adopted that utilizes nonlinear balance. The observed PV field is modified in a way that mimics realistic perturbations of trough intensity, location, or shape. Soundings, including moisture profiles, are reconstructed from the balanced geopotential height field assuming that air parcels conserve mixing ratio while their isentropic surfaces are displaced upward or downward by the addition of anomalous PV. Unperturbed balanced soundings agree reasonably well with full, unbalanced soundings, and differences are attributable to departures from nonlinear balance in areas of strong vorticity or acceleration. Balanced vertical wind profiles do not include the effects of friction, so the vertical shear of the balanced wind departs unacceptably from total shear within the lowest 1 km of the troposphere. The balanced wind perturbations are added to the total analyzed shear profile to estimate the effect of PV perturbations on shear and storm-relative helicity. By this process, the importance of typical or hypothesized upper-tropospheric forecast errors may be addressed in an idealized, case-study, or operational context.